Posted by
Bonncaruso on Saturday, November 29, 2008 8:05:45 AM
HELLO TO ALL AT TOWNHALL!
Here is
my statistics blog (electoral politics).
I started this blog in November 2007 with this
rationale.
There are just tons of statistics on my blog since November 2007 (long before 538 existed, btw):
-Partisan rankings based on 2004.
-100 and 60 year voting history and averages for each state plus DC.
-in depth coverage of all primary polling for both sides of the aisle.
-An intense statistical study of what it would take for Clinton to seal the nomination for the DEM party after March 9, 2008.
-All presidential match-up polls, distilled down to McCain vs. Obama once it became clear that they would be the candidates.
-after the GOP convention, nightly BATTLEGROUND STATE reports and predictions.
Though there are just a couple of editorial postings from me, most all of this is simply the numbers speaking for themselves.
I have also been cross-posting and very active in debate at Dave Leip's
US ELECTION ATLAS website.
It should be noted that I also made some very specific predictions as
to the GE. Here is what I posted on November 4th, a couple of hours
before the first polls closed:
"a national average of +7.54, assuming 2% for third parties, would result in the following national popular vote:
Obama: 52.77%
McCain:45.23%
Other: 2%
Here are the current figures, as of 11/29:
Obama: 68,293,866 (52.76%)
McCain: 58,327,274 (45.83%)
Other: 1,833,463 (1.42%)
Margin: Obama +8,966,592 (+6.93%)
Partisan shift VIS-A-VIS 2004: +9.39
I am off by only +0.01% on Obama's winning percent. Not bad for the first time out of the gate.
Feel free to stop by my statistics blog.